New report shows how war, cyber-attacks and extreme weather could disrupt UK food supplies, warning coordinated action is needed to prevent crisis.
A major disruption to UK food supplies caused by war, extreme weather or cyber-attacks could escalate into a national crisis, according to a new study by leading food system experts.
Researchers from the University of York, Anglia Ruskin University and partner institutions warn that shocks such as price spikes or shortages could intensify pressure on already vulnerable parts of the food system, increasing instability and the risk of social unrest. The findings are published in the journal Sustainability.
Recent cyber-attacks on major retailers and global price volatility linked to the war in Ukraine have exposed the UK food system’s reliance on fragile, just-in-time supply chains, the researchers say. The report maps how disruptions could cascade through the system, highlighting structural weaknesses, crisis triggers and interventions to prevent escalation.
Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, said:
The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security. While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.
While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected. Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.”
Conflict, cyber disruption and cascading shocks
A major international conflict could disrupt trade, raise energy prices and destabilise agricultural and food supply chains, pushing food costs higher. Low-income households would be hardest hit, with reduced access to nutritious food increasing food insecurity and social tension.
The study warns sustained pressure could fuel food fraud and black-market activity, potentially increasing food-related illness and eroding public trust. In severe cases, this could lead to unrest. Researchers call for stronger UK energy security, more diversified food value chains and more varied diets to reduce risk.
Cyber-attacks and extreme weather could trigger similar cascading crises, alone or combined. Using systems-thinking methods and interviews with more than 30 experts across academia, government and industry, the study maps the interconnected UK food system to help policymakers identify vulnerabilities and strengthen planning.
Social impact and collaboration
The report finds food crises stem not only from supply shocks but also from inequality and food insecurity, which intensify societal strain during disruption.
Dominic Watters, lived and living experience researcher, writer, and study contributor, said:
Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care. This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society.
If we want a genuinely resilient and ‘ready’ United Kingdom, we cannot build it on systems of shame. That is why this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”
Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, added:
The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated. The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.
Policymakers must adopt a long term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.”
